11 min read
How much contingency should a project carry?
Most teams answer with a percentage. A percentile is a better answer, but only if you are honest about what it does not cover.
Notes on risk
Risk, examined.
Writing on enterprise, project and strategic risk: what the standards say, what the evidence shows, and where judgement still has to carry it.
7 min read
The register is one technique. The standard lists more than forty.
IEC 31010 exists because technique choice should follow the question being asked. Most organisations have stopped asking, and the standard's own limitations pages explain the cost.
7 min read
The bow tie is a controls technique, not a poster
IEC 31010 files the bow tie under techniques for analysing controls. Most organisations file it under pictures, and the half of the method that pays is the half that gets lost.
5 min read
One risk, quantified properly
The matrix asks you to pick a single consequence number for a risk that has a range of them. When a real decision hangs on that risk, model the range.
5 min read
How to read a country risk rating without fooling yourself
Every country index compresses a nation into one colour. Five questions tell you whether the compression was analysis, and they work on any index, including ours.